LIV. America's Coming Authoritarian Test

Thank you for the comments on our family friend Koko from last week’s Porcupine. It was a privilege to share some memories with you all.

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I have purposely avoided much of the regular news and changed some of my routines since the election. Instead, I’ve spent more time pondering and listening to music. I introduced my daughter to the wonders of Peter Gabriel and worked a bit on a book. In between, I was able to clarify some thoughts on what the next year might be like and to consider the actions others have taken to defend democracy.

Many times, historians must piece together the aims and purposes of authoritarian figures after the fact, after they’ve come to power. This time, because the incoming administration has been so vocal in its aim to purposely destabilize the norms, and with the release of the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, one can get a good idea of what we’re in for.

Efforts have begun even before taking office, with the selection of ideological followers for cabinet posts, people aligned with the man more than the country. With the addition of Elon Musk, who has delighted in torching thousands of jobs in his rise to legendary status, thus begins an unprecedented attempt at hoodwinking the working class and further entrenching structural economic inequality.

Here’s more of what we can expect.

Project 2025 explicitly calls for the immediate dismissal of thousands of federal employees through a process known as Schedule F, targeting career officials in crucial agencies, including the FBI, IRS, and EPA, and replacing them with those who express loyalty to a man instead of country. The Department of Justice will probably be the first up, mirroring Viktor Orbán's strategy in Hungary, where 85% of senior prosecutors were replaced within six months. In Hong Kong, the Chinese government replaced officials with party loyalists. Replacements promptly ended corruption investigations into leaders and allies while targeting opposition figures and putting them in prison.

The implications are stark for American law enforcement. Imagine a justice system based not on law but on patronage, where your fate depends on party loyalty rather than evidence. Law enforcement could be transformed into tools of political monitoring, while crucial regulatory protections for environment, labor, and financial oversight face systematic dismantling. Imagine generals, taught to be apolitical in our country to protect it, being chosen for loyalty and not ability.

The success of the Trump campaign depended upon carrying the myth of being an economically superior choice to the current administration, yet the financial costs of Trump’s initiatives will be immediate and severe. When Erdogan began Turkey's authoritarian turn, the lira lost 50% of its value within 18 months. Hungary saw foreign direct investment drop by 60% in the first two years under Orbán. China and Russia have only avoided economic collapse by centralizing all economic decision-making and putting the countries on a war footing with large government deficit spending. If similar patterns hold for us, Americans could face:

- A 20-30% stock market decline as international investors withdraw from what was considered the safest and most productive market on the planet

- Sharp reductions in foreign direct investment as tariffs and antagonistic relations take hold

- Millions of job losses in trade-dependent industries as tariffs reduce imports and immigrant labor stays home for fear of being deported

- Significantly higher borrowing costs as lenders demand risk premiums in an unsteady market

- Potential isolation from international banking systems in a tit-for-tat as America pulls away from principles of free and open markets

The most dangerous outcome to prepare for will be a manufactured crisis, likely focused on the southern border, where Project 2025 documents already outline plans for military deployment (at the time I’m writing this, Trump has already tested public opinion by suggesting he plans to use the military). The playbook suggests staging a confrontation by deliberately creating humanitarian emergencies through policy changes, stoking a climate of fear, then declaring a national emergency when state authorities resist federal orders. This would trigger ready-to-go executive orders allowing military intervention, suspension of posse comitatus restrictions, and federalization of state National Guard units. Similar scenarios played out in Turkey (2016 coup attempt) and Hungary (2015 refugee crisis), where manufactured emergencies justified permanent expansions of executive power. Those leaders are still in power today.

Some local officials in border states will welcome these “temporary” powers, while others will see it for the danger it is. Various levels of government will probably set up alternative chains of command, which will force a confrontation between Americans who believe that their neighbors are the enemy. Some will build relationships directly with Mexican state authorities and tip off efforts to circumvent nationalized initiatives. Groups such as the ACLU and worker unions will need to establish legal defense networks for officials who resist illegal orders and assist in public communication strategies to counter the crisis narratives that will be both illegal and untrue.

The timeline for democratic breakdown can be surprisingly quick. In both Hungary and Turkey, the crucial institutional captures occurred within the first six months. Hong Kong successfully countered democratic responses and ultimately imprisoned the opposition leadership. Given that the American system operates with mid-term, two-year elections, quick control will most likely be the goal here before those elections can serve as an interruption.

The window for establishing effective resistance networks closes rapidly once authoritarians implement their playbook. The historical record in places that were once democracies suggests our survival depends on preparation and coordination across multiple sectors of society. Project 2025's explicit blueprint provides a crucial warning and an opportunity to prepare specific defensive measures. Some efforts will need to be localized and un-publicized. Others will need to be loud and out front. Journalists and networks will be tried in public. Methods of news dissemination will be further centralized and controlled. The American people must use their wits and connections to find ways to slow the slide toward a Putin-esque control of government, and simply get much better at knowing when they are being conned.

These suggested outcomes only scratch the surface of what we will see and experience. The question is not whether American democracy will face this test, but whether those committed to its defense will have adequately prepared their responses. I suspect given the current zeal to cut agencies, jobs, and services, the marketing of this through outlets such as Fox News will start with an us vs. them fashion, with the old cliches of draining the swamp, owning the libs, targeting the elites, and an urban vs. rural mindset.

The reality is the changes being orchestrated will hemorrhage the entire economic system and mean a significant cut in working-class jobs and a reduction in services supporting the working poor. It will be tempered by distracting with the typical social issues related to God, gays, and guns. The result will be less choice, less services, less money, and less opportunity.

This isn’t about owning the libs; it’s about owning you and your future. A very particular one.

Knowledge is power.

Your homework for this week?

• See the movie Civil War and assess who was the establishment and who were the freedom fighters.

• Watch Fight Like Hell, the new documentary on January 6th, and evaluate the power of constant and purposeful manipulation. Here’s an interview with the filmaker.

State rights and private interests typically mean the poor will get poorer and communities lose funding. There is much more here about ideology and economics than any facts. I see voucher programs as nothing more than a power grab for private and specific religious interests, and it is a transfer of wealth to many families who already don’t pay their fair share. It is dangerous to divide the mass of Americans into two distinct camps. I see issues like this as more of a training ground for those who can see wide and those who see narrow.

My grandfather was a union member in a glass shop. The family lore has it that he was involved in the patent that created breakaway glass, the type of installation you see that has a mesh of wires. Back in that day, there was no sense of personal privilege when it came to creating something while you were working, but the company took care of him by taking him off the line and giving him a desk job.

Unions are going to enter a real make or break moment now with the next administration, especially in education.

Is education a public good?

That’s the question you need to be considering when the education department comes up for abolishment and much of the federal authority is scrapped and replaced by state control. Remember. While this is framed as a reduction in government and a return of state rights, it actually means a reduction in services and increased ideological control over what's considered education.

Unions strengthened under Biden. Despite making gains, the rank and files have still had a hard time overcoming deep-seated prejudice and misplaced anger. If I must search deeply for a silver lining, it’s that soon, very soon, we will see who is truly on the side of the working class of America. Regardless of where you stand on unions, I ask you to stand on facts. Economic inequality is driving the division that is doing such things as scapegoating immigrants and destroying local communities. This is a fixable public policy problem. Where greed is the guiding course, public policy must step in.

If you’re still unsure, talk to public sector teachers. They’ll know better what needs fixing than any other politician from any party.

This is an interesting piece from Nature, which typically stays on the side of science and out of politics but took a moment to discuss key areas. There is no way around this but to see the obvious. We will take a step back in all of these areas in terms of public policy. That means if AI is to make money, if climate change is to stay out of the way of making money, and health is left up to states and individuals moreso than federal healthcare guidelines, the public is simply going to be more exposed to graft, higher costs, and more sickness. AI without sound public policy is going to continue to advance, eat up jobs, and scare the hell out of people. For health, in a nation without federal guidelines and expectations, one person’s freedom to choose not to be vaccinated can put an entire community at risk. Individual choice becomes just another form of greed. Know the differences.

This is the kind of piece that I love for the Porcupine. In order to ensure our democracy doesn’t fade away, we must keep up with preserving the focus: power to the people. Our existing system has been hampered by the factors set out in this piece. Maybe the answer is a lottery system where citizens take turns serving in congress. Think its crazy?

Read it.

I’m especially convinced by the example in Ireland where groups of citizens were brought together to tackle big thorny issues like abortion. We have several problems like that in the United States. I’ve often felt if we could get abortion, climate change, and gun control to a national ballot, we would solve these issues. Enjoy this read by the great Daniel Pink.

Occasionally, I’ll come across something that reminds me of simpler times. The Marx Brothers were in the early age of cinema and I only caught them in late-night movies with other stalwarts like The Three Stooges. This is a piece from Bill Marx, the son of Harpo Marx, and I share it with its wonderful thoughts.

"By the time he settled down with my mom and started raising a family, he was in his fifties and financially secure enough not to have to work every day. And so he spent a lot of his time playing with... and getting to know... his kids. And this became his 'second childhood.'"

"My dad was the most child-like adult I've ever known. Not 'child-ish' - an unattractive quality that suggests a certain selfish insensitivity. That wasn't Dad at all. No, he took the world in the way a child does - with lots of wonder and very little judgment.... with the delight of someone for whom everything is new and delightful. The great comedy parodist of song, Allan Sherman, wrote in his autobiography, 'A Gift of Laughter,' 'Harpo Marx had the good sense to never grow up.'"

"Dad once told a friend he wanted to have as many kids as he had front windows in our house on Canon Drive in Beverly Hills... so that he could see them waving at them when he got home from work. It's still a nice image."

"My mom remembers waking up one night to find herself alone in bed. She searched the house to find out where my dad was. She looked into my 4-year-old sister, Minnie's room and found him in there, on the floor, playing jacks with her. He had insomnia, needed some action and decided to wake her up and play with her (Despite the fact that it was 3 in the morning, she was delighted)."

"In Dad's autobiography, 'Harpo Speaks', he mentions a list of rules we Marxes lived by. It wasn't a gag - Dad really did live by those rules and expected us to do the same. It wasn't that hard - his rules were all about being true to yourself and doing what was best for yourself."

Harpo Marx Family Rules

1. Life has been created for you to enjoy, but you won't enjoy it unless you pay for it with some good, hard work. This is one price that will never be marked down.

2. You can work at whatever you want to as long as you do it as well as you can and clean up afterwards and you're at the table at mealtime and in bed at bedtime.

3. Respect what the others do. Respect Dad's harp, Mom's paints, Billy's piano, (son) Alex's set of tools, (son) Jimmy's designs, and Minnie's menagerie.

4. If anything makes you sore, come out with it. Maybe the rest of us are itching for a fight, too.

5. If anything strikes you as funny, out with that, too. Let's all the rest of us have a laugh.

6. If you have an impulse to do something that you're not sure is right, go ahead and do it. Take a chance. Chances are, if you don't you'll regret it - unless you break the rules about mealtime and bedtime, in which case you'll sure as hell regret it.

7. If it's a question of whether to do what's fun or what is supposed to be good for you, and nobody is hurt whichever you do, always do what's fun.

8. If things get too much for you and you feel the whole world's against you, go stand on your head. If you can think of anything crazier to do, do it.

9. Don't worry about what other people think. The only person in the world important enough to conform to is yourself.

10. Anybody who mistreats a pet or breaks a pool cue is docked a month's pay.

A reminder that there are always good and loving people in the world.

In closing, I came across this song in my Ukrainian language class. The strength of Cossacks has become a national anthem as Ukrainians have fought for their freedom to keep from getting rolled up again into a Soviet Union style of government. Only with the foolishness since 9/11 have we made it difficult for Americans to know what is a just war and what is a quagmire. This is a just war and we have been on the right side of history with this one. Don’t forget it no matter the lies and falsehoods to come.

In this week of thanksgiving, I give thanks for you, and I give thanks for living in a country where we can freely partake in universal knowledge. We will need our brains much more than our brawn at every turn. I hope you’ll get to use yours (your brain) with family and friends around an enjoyable meal this week.

Be a good human.

And be prepared to make good trouble.